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2022/06/21 / Erste Group Research

Währungen in unsicherem Umfeld

EURUSD sollte vorerst in einer Seitwärtsbewegung um 1,05 bleiben. Ausschlägen in beide Richtungen um diesen Wert war zuletzt nur eine kurze Dauer beschieden und die Datenlage sollte wechselhaft bleiben.

Aufgrund des Ukraine Kriegs und hoher Inflation erwarten wir in der Eurozone in den kommenden Monaten allerdings schwächere Konjunkturdaten, wodurch wir einen Rückgang des Renditeniveaus bei mittleren und langen Laufzeiten erwarten. In diesem Umfeld sollte der Yen graduell wieder etwas zum Euro befestigen.

Wir prognostizieren den Franken zum Euro bis auf weiteres auf einem stabilen Wechselkurs-Niveau von 1,02. In den kommenden Monaten wird der Wechselkurs aber auch sehr stark davon abhängen, mit welcher Geschwindigkeit und in welchem Ausmaß die EZB den Leitzins ihrerseits anheben wird.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameDevisen News
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, Japan, Switzerland, United States
Currency in focusEuro, Swiss Franc, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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