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2022/06/14 / Erste Group Research

Domestic demand remaining driving force behind growth

Going into the first quarter of 2022, GDP growth pace remained robust with headline figure increasing 9.8% y/y. Detailed structure revealed stronger than anticipated private consumption growth, coupled with favorable investment activity, backing-up such vivid performance, while net exports contribution was negative. Going forward, outlook suggests growth decelerating amid high base effect, increasing price pressures and war in Ukraine. However, with better than expected 1Q output we revised our FY22 forecast to 3.9%, while underlining risks amid uncertainty over the further development of the UKR-RUS conflict.

Strong upside inflation pressures further intensified as CPI spiked at 8.1% y/y in May – inflation should stay at higher levels also in the remainder of the year, suggesting average FY21 CPI around 7.2% mark, while highlighting upside risks to the figure. On the fiscal side, we expect to see further consolidation effort as the anti-corona measures fade out. However, certain pressures to the budget performance are arising from government's efforts to tackle energy crisis. On the rating side, Fitch affirmed Slovenia's credit rating at 'A', with stable outlook, with such a decision reflecting vivid growth profile and strong fiscal support during pandemic.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSlovenia
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focus-


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