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2021/02/03 / Erste Group Research

EURCHF – Inflationsausblick stellt kurzfristiges Risiko dar

Nach einem deutlichen Anstieg ab etwa November letzten Jahres, musste der Euro seit Beginn des neuen Jahres einen Teil seiner Gewinne wieder abgeben. Gründe dafür waren Gewinnmitnahmen aber sicherlich auch die Aussicht auf weitere Wirtschaftspakete in den USA, nachdem die Demokraten die Mehrheit im Senat erlangt hatten. Für die kommenden Monate erwarten wir eine Seitwärtsbewegung.

Der Yen verharrte zum Euro in den letzten 2 Monaten in einer Handelsspanne zwischen 125 und 126,5. Durch den Einsatz wirksamer Impfstoffe sowie dank fiskalischer und geldpolitischer Unterstützung erwarten wir eine Fortsetzung des konjunkturellen Aufschwungs in 2021. In diesem Umfeld leidet üblicherweise die Nachfrage nach Sicheren-Hafen Anlagen wie dem Yen.

Durch Sondereffekte sowie einen erheblichen Anstieg der Energiepreise erwarten wir einen starken Anstieg des Inflationsniveaus der Eurozone im 1Q 21. Dadurch wird sich die Inflationsdifferenz zur Schweiz stark ausweiten. In den letzten Jahren hat der EURCHF-Wechselkurs zwar kaum auf kurzfristige Schwankungen der Inflationsdifferenz reagiert, dennoch stellt dies ein Abwärtsrisiko für den Euro im 1Q 21 dar.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2021/02/03
Languagede
Product nameDevisen News
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusJapan, Switzerland, United States
Currency in focusSwiss Franc, US Dollar
Sector in focus-
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