Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2020/05/04 / Erste Group Research

Poland Weekly Focus | Sentiment drops in April

PMI and ESI for April plummeted, showing impact of containment measures on market sentiment. No releases scheduled this week. Markets likely to follow global news.

PMI dropped to historically low level. Manufacturing PMI for April dropped to 31.9, from the 42.2 observed in March – the biggest monthly decrease since June 1998, when such data began to be collected. New orders, output and export sub-indices recorded an unprecedented drop. The April figure arrived below levels observed in the Eurozone (33.6 in April) and other CEE countries (CZ at 35.1 and HU at 33.6). The drop in the PMI went hand in hand with a decrease in the economic sentiment indicator (ESI), which plummeted to 47.2 in April. With such severe deterioration of market sentiment, we see downside risks to our FY20 GDP growth forecast.

Bond market drivers | 10Y yield went up. Last week, the long end of the LCY curve went up despite decreasing yields on core markets. While the 10Y Bund dropped below -0.55%, the 10Y Polish yield increased to above 1.45%, returning from all-time lows. As a result, the spread vs. the 10Y Bund widened more visibly to 205bp. We see the current spread level as justifiable and expect it to remain around that value until the end of 2Q20. Last week, the National Bank of Poland held another outright operation and bought PLN 13.2bn in Treasuries and state guaranteed bonds.

FX market drivers | Zloty weakened at end of month. The weakening of the US dollar against the EUR was associated with the depreciation of the zloty and the EURPLN peaking at 4.57 on Friday, also due to the public holiday likely lowering liquidity on the market. The better start to the new week did not last long, as the weak PMI for April pushed the EURPLN back above 4.55. The US labor market report for April will show the first full impact of the containment measures, with surging weekly new jobless claims making for limited impact on the EURUSD. The zloty should follow COVID-19 related news as there are no important releases scheduled for this week.

PDF Download Download PDF (411kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Update
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).

The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.

Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended). For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited. The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.

The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.

By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.