Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2020/04/27 / Erste Group Research

Poland Weekly Focus | Central bank to buy bonds

No local macro releases scheduled this week. Central bank to hold second bond auction in April. Volume could reach PLN 20-30bn. Flash estimate of 1Q20 GDP growth in US and Eurozone to be in focus.

April 29 | NBP to buy bonds. The National Bank of Poland is scheduled to buy bonds within their QE program. So far, the NBP has bought almost PLN 50bn in bonds on the secondary market, mostly in papers maturing in 2025 and 2029. During last auction central bank bought PLN 30bn.

Bond market drivers | Long end of curve dropped further. The low-yield environment continues in Poland. Over the course of the week, the 10Y LCY yield went further down and dropped towards 1.35%, following core market developments. With the 10Y Bund dropping by 5bp to below -0.5%, the 10Y LCY tested the 1.3% level in the middle of the week. As a result, the spread vs. the 10Y Bund went down to 170bp, but recovered in the second half of the week and moved towards 180bp. This week, NBP operations on the secondary market will likely be in focus.

FX market drivers | EURPLN fluctuates around 4.53. The zloty remains locked around recent levels of 4.53 vs. the EUR. Releases of real economy data for March did not influence the zloty. Global factors continue to drive the exchange rate and we see the EURPLN remaining around 4.52 until the end of 2Q20. This week, in both the Eurozone and US, the central bank committees will meet and decide on monetary policy. However, for the EURUSD, the flash estimates of 1Q GDP growth in the US and Eurozone may turn out to be more important.

PDF Download Download PDF (287kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Update
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).

The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.

Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended). For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited. The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.

The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.

By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.