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2020/03/13 / Erste Group Research

Wochenausblick | Rezession in der Eurozone

Die WHO hat den weltweiten COVID-19 Ausbruch aufgrund der raschen Ausbreitung als Pandemie deklariert und Staaten aufgerufen, umfangreiche Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung des Virus zu ergreifen. Dementsprechend haben fast alle Staaten Europas im Verlauf dieser Woche begonnen, ihre Quarantäne-Maßnahmen teils drastisch auszuweiten. Wir rechnen vor diesem Hintergrund damit, dass die Eurozone im 1. Halbjahr in eine Rezession schlittern wird. Für das Gesamtjahr 2020 gehen wir davon aus, dass das BIP der Eurozone um 0,5% sinken wird.

Die Aufmerksamkeit der globalen Finanzmärkte wird sich nächste Woche auf die geldpolitische Entscheidung der US-Notenbank richten. Aus unserer Sicht wird die Fed dabei abwägen müssen, was mittelfristig sinnvoll ist und was die Märkte kurzfristig verlangen. Wir erwarten eine Zinssenkung um 50 Basispunkte damit weniger als der Markt.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWochenausblick
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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