Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2019/12/05 / Erste Group Research

Czechia Outlook | GDP growth to persist slightly below 3%


The favorable economic development in the Czech Republic continues. We expect GDP growth to arrive at 2.5% and 2.7% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Similarly to this year, the growth will still be driven by both domestic and foreign demand. The former is mainly influenced by tight labor market whereas the latter by the increasing quality of exports and the weak koruna.

The strong labor market and domestic demand are the most significant proinflationary forces behind the high inflation. However, as risks in the global economy prevail, we see stability of CNB rates in the next year as the most likely scenario. The koruna is still weak, as the link between the koruna and the interest rate differential is much weaker compared with previous years, due to uncertainty in the world economy.

In 2H19, the CNB has been in a wait-and-see mode. Although the domestic economy is still highly pro-inflationary, this development is mitigated by the anti-inflationary development in the Eurozone. Moreover, economic risks are still sufficiently high from the CNB’s point of view, which in turn results in higher cautiousness. In the next year, we see stability of rates as the most likely outcome.


PDF Download Download PDF (150kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2019/12/05
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCzech Republic
Currency in focusCzech Koruna
Sector in focus-
Download



Accept

We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.

INFORMATION FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS / CONSUMERS

Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).

The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.

Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended). For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited. The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.

The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.

By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.