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2019/07/19 / Erste Group Research

Wochenausblick | Wichtige Hinweise bei der EZB-Sitzung kommende Woche

Sowohl M. Draghi (EZB) als auch J. Powell (US Fed) haben zuletzt hervorgestrichen, dass das Preisstabilitäts- bzw. Inflationsziel ein symmetrisches sei. Ein kleines Wort, das einen großen Unterschied macht. Inflationswerte müssten dann in der Zukunft eine gewisse Zeit über 2% liegen, damit „symmetrisch“ ein 2% Preisstabilitäts- bzw. Inflationsziel erreicht werden kann, da die Inflationsraten ja seit einiger Zeit unter 2% geblieben sind.

Wir erwarten, dass sich die Notenbank mehr Handlungsspielraum eröffnen wird und ihre Festlegung (Forward Guidance) hinsichtlich der kurzfristigen Zinsentwicklung ändern wird. Statt den Hinweis zu geben, die Zinsen auf dem „derzeitigen“ Niveau zu belassen, könnte die EZB die Formulierung „auf angemessenem Niveau“ verwenden. Damit würde sie die Märkte auf die Möglichkeit von Zinssenkungen vorbereiten.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWochenausblick
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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