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2019/05/31 / Erste Group Research

Wochenausblick | Hard Brexit Vorbereitung, Sitzung des EZB-Rats, Eurozone Inflation Mai

Die Ereignisse der vorhergehenden Woche, die am 24. Mai in der Ankündigung des Rücktritts Theresa Mays kulminierten, haben den wahrscheinlichsten Ausgang (>50%) der Brexit-Verhandlungen aus unserer Sicht entscheidend geändert. Wir gehen jetzt von einem hard Brexit zum 31. Oktober aus. Damit ergeben sich weitreichende Konsequenzen für unseren Ausblick für die kommenden Quartale und darüber hinaus.

Nächste Woche tagt der EZB-Rat. Die Märkte warten auf die Entscheidung über die noch ausstehenden Spezifikationen des TLTRO-3 Programms. Weiters wird es neue Prognosen der EZB-Volkswirte geben. Darüber hinaus werden die Aussagen von EZB-Präsident Draghi zur derzeitgen Eischätzung der Konjunktur große Aufmerksamkeit bekommen.

Am 4. Juni wird eine erste Schnellschätzung der Inflation der Eurozone für den Monat Mai veröffentlicht. Bedingt durch den fehlenden temporären Rückenwind bei der Kerninflation erwarten wir ein leichtes Absinken der Gesamtinflation auf rd. +1,6% j/j.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWochenausblick
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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