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2019/03/11 / Erste Group Research

SI Macro Outlook, Slovenia: Domestic demand expected to further gain importance in 2019

GDP growth increased by 4.1% y/y in 4Q18, thus bringing expected deceleration vs. 5.0% in 3Q18, while wrapping up average FY18 performance at 4.5%. Going into 2019, we expect to see the growth rate maintaining a gradually decelerating tone, with domestic demand set as the key growth engine ahead, while the supportive net exports role should start diminishing, as the slowdown in Slovenia’s main export markets affects the exports profile. Bottom line: 2019 should bring additional deceleration towards the 3.0% region, although overall confirming the solid growth profile.

Inflation is seen as maintaining steady development during 2019, as more intensifying domestic demand drives upside pressures, while cost-side pressures are expected to have a somewhat more moderate impact. Ongoing improvement on the fiscal side continues, with the budget figure expected to bring another surplus, amid stronger tax revenues and decreasing interest expenditures. On the financing side, Slovenia was again among the first CEE countries that successfully issued a new bond in 2019, thus covering a large portion of its financing needs early in the year, while ensuring a comfortable position ahead.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSlovenia
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focus-


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