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2023/01/20 / Erste Group Research

Unternehmensstimmung sollte weiter ansteigen

Kommende Woche wird eine erste Schnellschätzung des Sentiments der Einkaufsmanager der Eurozone für Jänner veröffentlicht. Angesichts einer Energiekrise sowie Rekordinflation hat sich die Stimmung der Unternehmen im Jahr 2022 bis September kontinuierlich abgeschwächt. Ab November ist die Stimmung der Industrie allerdings erstmals nach einer langen Phase des Abschwungs geringfügig angestiegen.

Wir erwarten, dass die Stimmung der Einkaufsmanager der Eurozone im Jänner weiter leicht ansteigen sollte. Die Öffnung Chinas nach dem Ende der Null-Covid Politik ist ein zusätzlicher positiver Faktor für den Ausblick des Außenhandels der Eurozone.

Demgegenüber stellt das Zinsumfeld einen Unsicherheitsfaktor für den konjunkturellen Ausblick dar. Es gilt nun genau zu beobachten, in welchem Ausmaß sich die bereits gesetzten Zinsschritten der EZB dämpfend auf die Konjunktur im Jahr 2023 auswirken werden. Nachdem die EZB im Dezember weitere Zinsschritte angekündigt hat, wird durch die Geldpolitik der Gegenwind für die Konjunktur sogar noch weiter steigen.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWochenausblick
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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