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2023/01/18 / Erste Group Research

Eurozone and USA: How far will interest rates rise?

The year 2022 has brought a change in the interest rate landscape that is unparalleled. The ECB has raised key interest rates by 250 basis points since summer, the US Fed by 425 basis points since March. For the bond markets, this meant sharp increases in yields across all maturities and thus probably one of the "blackest" years.

2023 should be better. However, the question of what interest rate level is needed to bring inflation back to the central banks' target is anything but clear. While there are clear signs of a decline in inflation rates for food and energy, other areas such as services are much more difficult to assess.

As always in the Interest Rate Outlook, we present our assessment of the development of the interest rate landscape in the euro area and the USA in compact form. In the special section we look at the importance of national income for the development of inflation so far and evaluate the risks that emanate from this side for the further development. This is not only about the wages of salaried employees, which are given a lot of space in every discussion. We have also looked at corporate profits and the incomes of the self-employed.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameInterest Rate Outlook Eurozone, USA
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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