Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2022/06/14 / Erste Group Research

Domestic demand remaining driving force behind growth


Going into the first quarter of 2022, GDP growth pace remained robust with headline figure increasing 9.8% y/y. Detailed structure revealed stronger than anticipated private consumption growth, coupled with favorable investment activity, backing-up such vivid performance, while net exports contribution was negative. Going forward, outlook suggests growth decelerating amid high base effect, increasing price pressures and war in Ukraine. However, with better than expected 1Q output we revised our FY22 forecast to 3.9%, while underlining risks amid uncertainty over the further development of the UKR-RUS conflict.

Strong upside inflation pressures further intensified as CPI spiked at 8.1% y/y in May – inflation should stay at higher levels also in the remainder of the year, suggesting average FY21 CPI around 7.2% mark, while highlighting upside risks to the figure. On the fiscal side, we expect to see further consolidation effort as the anti-corona measures fade out. However, certain pressures to the budget performance are arising from government's efforts to tackle energy crisis. On the rating side, Fitch affirmed Slovenia's credit rating at 'A', with stable outlook, with such a decision reflecting vivid growth profile and strong fiscal support during pandemic.


PDF Download Download PDF (145kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2022/06/14
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSlovenia
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focus-
Download





Decline
Accept

We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. If you consent, these tools will be used. For more details please read our Data protection policy.

INFORMATION FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS / CONSUMERS

Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).

The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.

Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended). For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited. The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.

The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.

By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.