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2021/10/21 / Erste Group Research

Globale Verunsicherung stärkt den Franken

Mitte Oktober erreichte EURUSD fast 1,15 und damit den niedrigsten Wert seit Sommer 2020. Eine Gegenbewegung brachte den Euro dann zuletzt auf über 1,16 USD. Damit blieb EURUSD aber außerhalb der Handels-Bandbreite, die etwa seit Sommer 2020 gehalten hatte. Das technische Bild zeigt somit Risiken für einen festeren Dollar.

Nach der jüngsten Phase der Befestigung (ausgelöst durch eine drohende Insolvenz von Evergrande) schwächte sich der Yen zum Euro seit Anfang Oktober wieder deutlich ab. Aufgrund der starken Abhängigkeit Japans von importierten fossilen Brennstoffen (decken 88% des Primärenergiebedarfs laut IEA) ist der Yen durch den starken Preisanstieg für fossile Brennstoffe zum Euro unter Druck gekommen.

In den letzten Handelswochen ist durch mehrere Faktoren (u.a. drohende Insolvenz von Evergrande, historisch starker Anstieg der Energiepreise) die Unsicherheit an den globalen Finanzmärkten gestiegen. Dies führte zu einer Befestigung des Frankens zum Euro bis auf ein Wechselkursniveau von 1,07.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameDevisen News
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, Japan, Switzerland, United States
Currency in focusEuro, Swiss Franc, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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