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2021/09/24 / Erste Group Research

Who will succeed Angela Merkel?

Germany will elect a new Bundestag this Sunday (September 26). With Angela Merkel no longer a candidate, Germany will have a new chancellor regardless of the outcome of the election. According to current polls, the SPD would win the election with 25% of the vote, just ahead of the Union parties with 22% of the vote. Behind them, the Greens are currently expected to get 16% approval.

We raise our Eurozone GDP forecast for 2021 to 5.0%, from 4.4% previously, and for 2022 to 4.2%, from 4.1% previously. The main reason for raising the forecast in the current year is, on the one hand, a significant positive revision of GDP growth for 2Q. On the other hand, the strong momentum of the recovery in France and Spain is likely to continue in 3Q.

Next week, the first flash estimate of Eurozone inflation for September will be published. Due to persistently low comparative values from the previous year, as well as a continued rise in energy prices, we expect a further slight increase in inflation above 3.0% in September.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWeek ahead
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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