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2021/09/24 / Erste Group Research

Wer folgt auf Angela Merkel?

Deutschland wählt diesen Sonntag (26. September) einen neuen Bundestag. Nachdem Angela Merkel nicht mehr kandidiert, wird Deutschland unabhängig vom Wahlausgang einen oder eine neue Bundeskanzlerin erhalten. Laut aktuellen Umfragen würde die SPD mit 25% der Stimmen die Wahl knapp vor den Unionsparteien mit 22% der Stimmen für sich entscheiden. Dahinter werden derzeit die Grünen mit 16% Zustimmung erwartet.

Wir heben unsere BIP-Prognose der Eurozone für 2021 von zuvor 4,4% auf 5,0% und für 2022 von zuvor 4,1% auf 4,2% an. Ausschlaggebend für die Anhebung der Prognose im laufenden Jahr ist zum einen eine deutliche positive Revision des BIP-Wachstums für das 2Q. Zum anderen dürfte die starke Dynamik der Erholung in Frankreich und Spanien auch im 3Q anhalten.

Kommende Woche wird eine erste Schnellschätzung der Eurozone Inflation für September veröffentlicht. Aufgrund anhaltend niedriger Vergleichswerte aus dem Vorjahr, sowie durch einen fortgesetzten Anstieg der Energiepreise erwarten wir im September einen weiteren leichten Anstieg der Inflation über 3,0%.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWochenausblick
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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