Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2021/04/14 / Erste Group Research

CEE Special | Vaccines are light at the end of the tunnel

Successful inoculation process will not only save lives, but will also enable easing of restrictions that hamper economic activity. Most of CEE region has contracted sufficient amount of vaccines to reach herd immunity. However, delivery hiccups will remain the biggest obstacle.

The EU has ordered a total of 2.6bn doses from six manufacturers and has also concluded exploratory talks with Novavax and Valneva on the purchase of up to 260mn doses of these two vaccines. The CEE region is mostly in a comfortable position. Given that the majority of the vaccines require two doses, the country-level contracts should cover more than the whole population in Czechia, Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia and Slovenia. In general, herd immunity should be achieved once at least 70% of the eligible population gets vaccinated.

According to a leaked document by the European Commission, given the current supply plan, only around 50% of the population could be vaccinated with two doses in most CEE countries by the end of June, which is below the EU27 median. The situation looks the gloomiest in Slovakia and Croatia, where less than 40% of the population should receive two shots by the end of 2Q21.

Availability of vaccines is not the only struggle CEE countries will need to deal with in order to get a critical mass of the population inoculated. According to the European Commission survey from December 2020, only about one third of the adult CEE population was convinced to get vaccinated as soon as possible or sometime this year. Although resistance to vaccines has likely decreased since December last year, recent news about the very rare side-effects of the Oxford/AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson jab could additionally undermine the inoculation process.

PDF Download Download PDF (280kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Economies Special Report
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCEE, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna, Czech Koruna, Euro, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Romanian Leu, Serbian dinar
Sector in focus-


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. If you consent, these tools will be used. For more details please read our Data protection policy.


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).

The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.

Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended). For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited. The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.

The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.

By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.