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2021/02/16 / Erste Group Research

Wie verläuft der Aufschwung?

Das laufende Jahr wird für die Anleihenmärkte alles andere als einfach. In der Eurozone wird die Herausforderung darin bestehen, mit sehr volatilen Inflationsraten umzugehen. In den USA ist die Unsicherheit größer. Denn hier muss der Anleihenmarkt die Auswirkungen der massiven Stimuluspakete der öffentlichen Hand abschätzen. Über beiden Volkswirtschaften schwebt die Unsicherheit, wann und wie schnell das Hochfahren der Wirtschaft gelingen wird, nachdem die Ausbreitung von COVID-19 unter Kontrolle gebracht wurde.

Die Glaubwürdigkeit der Notenbanken könnte in diesem Jahr an Bedeutung gewinnen, an deren grundlegenden Einstellung, Zinsen und Renditen noch lange niedrig zu halten, sich nichts ändern sollte.

In diesem Umfeld wird die Europäische Kommission im Namen der EU beginnen, Anleihen zur Finanzierung des Next Generation EU-Programms zu emittieren. Für das SURE-Programm wird es weitere Emissionen geben. Die EU-Anleihen haben während der kommenden Jahre das Potential, sich zu einer Alternativ-Benchmark zu deutschen Bundesanleihen für die Eurozone zu entwickeln.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2021/02/16
Languagede
Product nameZinsausblick Eurozone, USA
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-
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