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2021/01/07 / Erste Group Research

2021 ist das Jahr des Aufschwungs

2021 ist aufgrund von drei wesentlichen Faktoren das Jahr des Aufschwungs für die globale Wirtschaft. Dank des Einsatzes erster wirksamer Impfstoffe gegen COVID-19 sollten derzeit notwendige Einschränkungsmaßnahmen 2021 allmählich gelockert werden. Zusätzlich erhält die globale Wirtschaft 2021 Rückenwind von einer anhaltend expansiven geldpolitischen Ausrichtung der wichtigsten Notenbanken der Welt. Darüber hinaus werden wesentliche Wirtschaftsräume von großzügigen fiskalischen Stimulus-Paketen Unterstützung bekommen.

Durch den EU-Aufbauplan steigt der Reformdruck. Um die Finanzmittel des EU-Aufbauplans abrufen zu können, müssen alle EU-Länder bis April 2021 Reformpläne mit der Kommission erarbeiten. Für Italien und Spanien ein heikles Unterfangen, nachdem die Kommission verzögerte Reformen einmahnen wird.

Die grüne Transformation der Wirtschaft gewinnt an Dynamik. Deutschland und Frankreich müssen ihre Anstrengungen zur Erreichung ihrer Treibhausgas-Emissionsziele bis 2030 deutlich erhöhen. Daraus ergibt sich ein erheblicher Finanzierungsbedarf, dem der EU-Aufbauplan Rechnung trägt. China folgt Europa und hat 2020 einen richtungsweisenden Schwenk vollzogen und möchte bis 2060 eine klimaneutrale Wirtschaft sein.

Wir erwarten für die USA 2021 ein Wachstum von 4,2%, nach einer Schrumpfung von 3,5% im letzten Jahr. Diese schnelle Erholung ist nicht zuletzt auf die hohen Ausgaben der öffentlichen Hand zurückzuführen.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2021/01/07
Languagede
Product nameWirtschaftsausblick Eurozone, USA
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-
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