Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2019/12/10 / Erste Group Research

Croatia Outlook | 2020 – pending green light for ERM II entry

We fine-tune our FY19 GDP forecast to 3.0% and confirm our call for 2020 at 2.5%. GDP growth accelerated in 3Q19 (2.9% y/y), owing to a solid domestic demand footprint and stronger than anticipated net export performance. As for the outlook, domestic demand should remain in good shape (strong labor market on the consumption side, EU funds being a counter-cyclical buffer on the investment side). The export outlook remains a headwind and key downside risk, reflecting the weak EZ growth momentum and ongoing normalization of the tourism contribution to exports.

The monetary policy course is set to remain accommodative in 2020, courtesy of the dovish ECB and comfortable inflation and exchange rate outlook. In 2020, we see the focus on ERM II entry prospects, with entry next year as our baseline. Fiscal discipline remains largely intact, though risks are increasing, mainly reflecting the approaching parliamentary elections (increasing public wage appetite). Public debt is heading below 70% of GDP. As far as the rating is concerned, ERM II membership is the next milestone. The presidential election takes the top spot in the political arena and the outlook is getting increasingly blurry.

PDF Download Download PDF (113kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCroatia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna
Sector in focus-


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).

The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.

Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended). For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited. The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.

The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.

By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.