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2019/11/08 / Erste Group Research

Wochenausblick | Beilegung von Handelskonflikten in greifbarer Nähe?

Die Aktien- und Rentenmärkte sind zunehmend optimistisch, dass dem Schreckgespenst Handelskonflikt bald ein Ende gesetzt werden könnte. China und die Vereinigten Staaten haben sich in den letzten Wochen darauf geeinigt, verhängte Zölle aufheben zu wollen. Dies soll in verschiedenen Phasen erfolgen, was allerdings noch fehlt, ist ein konkreter Zeitplan sowie die Größenordnung der aufzuhebenden Tarife.

Der neue Wirtschaftsausblick der Europäischen Kommission ist im Vergleich zu den Frühjahrs- und Sommerzwischenprognosen deutlich pessimistischer. Das erwartete BIP-Wachstum von 1,1% im Jahr 2019 und 1,2% im Jahr 2020 (Sommerprognose: 1,2% im Jahr 2019 und 1,4% im Jahr 2020) stimmt mit unseren eigenen Prognosen überein. Die erwartete Abwärtskorrektur wurde durch eine anhaltende Schwäche des verarbeitenden Gewerbes und zunehmende Unsicherheiten ausgelöst, die auch den internationalen Handel belasteten und kurzfristig nicht ausreichend durch die Binnennachfrage kompensiert werden konnten.


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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2019/11/08
Languagede
Product nameWochenausblick
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-
DownloadPDF (278kB) PDF Download





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