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2019/07/15 / Erste Group Research

Fed Vorsitzender Jerome Powell hat in seinem halbjährlichen geldpolitischen Bericht vor dem Kongress herausgestrichen, dass die Annahmen für das erwartete Wirtschaftswachstum zwar solide seien, aber Gegenwinde von den Handelskonflikten oder die Besorgnis hinsichtlich des globalen Wachstums den Ausblick belasten. Diese Besorgnis um eine mögliche Eintrübung des Ausblicks würde die Inflationsaussichten dämpfen und damit sind die Risiken für Zinssenkungen gestiegen. Im Gegensatz dazu ist die Zinssenkungsphantasie in der Eurozone gesunken. Die Industrieproduktion im Mai hat scheinbar einen Boden gefunden und EZB Direktoriumsmitglied Benoît Coeure hat darauf hingewiesen, dass die Inflationserwartungen der privaten Haushalte stabiler und nahe einem 6-Jahreshöchststand sind und die bessere Vorhersagekraft haben. Die EZB könnte also in Zukunft eine größere Auswahl an Indikatoren für die Inflationsentwicklung berücksichtigen.

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameVideo German
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focus-
Currency in focus-
Sector in focus-


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