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2019/07/12 / Erste Group Research

Wirtschaftsausblick | Handelskonflikt und Brexit bestimmen den Ausblick

Für den Konjunkturausblick bleibt der Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China der wichtigste Faktor. Angesichts des Leidensdrucks auf beiden Seiten rechnen wir im 2. Halbjahr mit einer Annäherung. Aufgrund dessen erwarten wir, dass die Konjunktur dem positiven Trend der Aktienmärkte folgen wird und sich die globalen Wachstumsaussichten im 2. Halbjahr 2019 graduell verbessern sollten.

Wir gehen davon aus, dass zusätzlich bis Ende Oktober die Brexit-Frage den Konjunkturausblick der Eurozone bestimmen wird. Angesichts der politischen Entwicklungen im Vereinigten Königreich (Rücktritt von Theresa May im Juni) gehen wir von einem Hard Brexit zum 31. Oktober aus. Wir erwarten aufgrund des Schocks leicht negatives Wachstum der Eurozone im 4Q 2019 gefolgt von einer graduellen Erholung ab dem 1Q 2020.

Für 2019 prognostizieren wir einen Rückgang der Gesamtinflation der Eurozone auf +1,4%, der insbesondere auf einen sinkenden Inflationsbeitrag der Energiekomponente in 2019 zurückzuführen ist.

Das Wachstum der US-Wirtschaft wird sich in diesem Jahr gegenüber dem letzten verringern. Vor allem die Zinsmärkte reagierten zuletzt nervös und sehen klare Anzeichen für einen einsetzenden Abschwung und damit für eine Reaktion der Notenbank. Wir glauben hingegen, dass die US-Konjunktur sich bei nachhaltigen Wachstumsraten einpendeln wird.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2019/07/12
Languagede
Product nameWirtschaftsausblick Eurozone, USA
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-
DownloadPDF (585kB) PDF Download





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