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2019/05/24 / Erste Group Research

Wochenausblick | Rücktritt Theresa Mays, Handelskrieg USA-China, Europa-Wahlen

Nach dem Rücktritt Theresa Mays ist der nächste Schritt die Bestellung eines Nachfolgers. Dieser Prozess sollte ab 10. Juni beginnen und wird wohl zumindest bis Ende Juli dauern. Von der Fristverlängerung für eine Einigung bis Ende Oktober, die von der EU zugestanden wurde, werden damit vier von sieben Monate verstrichen sein, ohne dass irgendwelche Fortschritte in der Sache erzielt worden wären.Die Risiken für einen hard Brexit sind somit deutlich gestiegen.

Das zweite große Thema an den Märkten ist der Handelskrieg zwischen China und den USA. Derzeit sind die Verhandlungen zu einem Stillstand gekommen. Aus unserer Sicht bleibt aber eine Einigung während der kommenden Monate das wahrscheinlichste Szenario.

Von 23. bis 26. Mai laufen die Wahlen zu einem neuen Europäischen Parlament. Bislang dominieren die Konservativen und Christdemokraten (rd. 29% der Sitze) sowie die Sozialdemokraten (rd. 25% der Sitze) das Parlament. Basierend auf aktuellen Umfragen müssen jedoch sowohl die Konservativen (rd. 24% der Sitze) als auch die Sozialdemokraten (rd. 21% der Sitze) mit deutlichen Einbußen rechnen.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWochenausblick
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-
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