|2023/03/20 / Erste Group Research|
Subdued GDP growth expected, inflation remains high
In 2022, the Austrian economy reported a strong recovery, with GDP growth of 5.0%. In 2H22, the recovery significantly slowed down, dampened by high inflation and increasing global uncertainty. We expect sluggish economic development to continue in the first quarters of 2023. In 2H23, easing inflationary pressures and government support measures should lead to acceleration of GDP growth.
Despite some easing in autumn 2022, Austrian HICP inflation jumped again above 11% at the beginning of 2023. Despite the current increase, we expect inflation to gradually decline in 2023. Following the 50bp rate hike in March, the ECB is leaving all options open. Government bond yields have fallen sharply recently, mainly due to strong uncertainty about the banking sector in the US and Europe.
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|Author||Erste Group Research|
|Product name||CEE Country Macro Outlook|
|Topic in focus||FX, Macro/ Fixed income|
|Economy in focus||Austria|
|Currency in focus||Euro|
|Sector in focus||-|
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