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Research Detail

2015/03/05 / Erste Group Research
- CEZ verlautbarte ein EBITDA von CZK von 72,5 Mrd. (-11,6% j/j) für GJ14. Der Haupttreiber des Ergebnisses waren die fallenden Großhandels-strompreise sowie eine extrem warmer und trockener Winter in Tschechien. Die Guidance für das GJ15-EBITDA des Konzerns beträgt CZK 70 Mrd. (-3.4% j/j). Zwar wird der negative Einfluss von fallenden Strompreisen auf das EBITDA in 2015 geringer sein, doch er wird signifikant bleiben.

- CEZ erwirtschaftete in GJ14 einen positiven freien Cashflow und reduzierte seine Nettoverschuldung um CZK 9,2 Mrd. (auf CZK 147,2 Mrd.). Trotzdem verschlechterte sich das Verhältnis von Nettoverschuldung zu EBITDA etwas auf 2,03x (GJ13: 1,91x).

- Der Konzern plant Investitionsausgaben von CZK 37,9 Mrd. in 2015. Dieser Betrag sollte sich in den Geschäftsjahren 2016 bis 2019 bei etwa CZK 25-28 Mrd. p.a. einpendeln. Allerdings kann eine größere Akquisition wie die von Slovenské elektrárne nicht ausgeschlossen werden.

- Trotz der soliden Fundamentaldaten in Relation zu den meisten Vergleichsunternehmen ist die Unsicherheit im Zusammenhang mit den Akquisitionsplänen unserer Ansicht nach der stärkste Treiber für die Spread-Aufschläge von CEZ-Anleihen gegenüber den „A-“Rating-Firmen aus der Vergleichsgruppe am langen Ende der Kurve.

Alihan Karadagoglu
+43 (0) 50 100 19633

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCredit News DE
Topic in focusCredits/ Corporate bonds
Economy in focusCEE
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focusUtilities


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