Look for:

Research Detail

2022/12/01 / Erste Group Research

Energy crisis ripples through the economy

Second-round effects of the war in Ukraine have started to spill over into economic growth. After solid economic growth in 1H22, the pace of expansion slowed considerably over the summer. Economic sluggishness is projected to persist throughout 1H23 reflecting a projected recession in the Eurozone, the impact of persistent inflation and the deterioration in consumer and business confidence.

The data for October revealed that inflation accelerated further, resulting in 15% growth in y/y terms. While earlier inflation was mostly driven by food and energy prices, core inflation accounted for roughly 60% of headline inflation in 3Q. We still expect inflation to peak in 4Q22, but it will remain high in historical terms for quite some time going forward.

Gross refinancing needs for next year are high at around 10% of the GDP, reflecting EUR 4.6bn in maturities and EUR 2.2bn to cover the budget gap. The government recently signed an agreement with the IMF for a 2-year SBA worth EUR 2.4bn, while the rest will likely also be covered through bilateral credit deals.

Serbian Eurobond yields retreated from highs seen in mid-October above 8%, closer to the 6% mark. Still, the economic and market backdrop remains challenging for EM, with global growth expected to slow and inflation expected to remain elevated over the coming months.

PDF Download Download PDF (129kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSerbia
Currency in focusSerbian dinar
Sector in focus-


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. If you consent, these tools will be used. For more details please read our Data protection policy.


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).

The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.

Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended). For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited. The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.

The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.

By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.
(iV) It is no consumer.