Look for:

Research Detail

2021/12/02 / Erste Group Research

Growth dynamics to normalize further

Growth dynamics to further normalize in coming quarters. Economy to slow down to 4.6% in 2022 on the back of weaker private consumption and investment growth. Inflation remains in the spotlight. Central bank will continue to tighten monetary conditions.

The Polish economy already returned to its pre-pandemic level in 2Q21 and continued to expand at a robust pace over the summer, as 3Q21 GDP arrived at 5.3% y/y. We see growth dynamics at a solid 5-5.5% y/y in the last quarter and FY21 growth should thus land at 5.3%. Next year, the economy should slow down to 4.6%. Elevated inflation and the subsequent tightening of monetary conditions will drag private consumption down, while any further delay in the disbursement of funds from the EU Recovery Plan and risks related to the ongoing dispute with the EU will negatively affect investment activity. On the other hand, tax changes introduced as of the beginning of next year should increase the disposable income for lower- and middle-income households.

Headline inflation continues to surprise on the upside and we expect it to remain outside of the central bank’s tolerance band in the coming quarters. Recently, the government announced a set of tax cuts to lower energy bills for households at the start of the year. The proposed measures include cuts in VAT and excise duties on electricity, gas and fuels and should decrease headline CPI by around 1-1.5pp compared to the no-policy change scenario. Nevertheless, average inflation should land at 6.0% in 2022 before easing toward 3.5% in 2023. The interest rate outlook for Poland remains highly uncertain and will strongly depend on short-term inflation developments. We continue to think that the peak of the current tightening cycle will be reached at 2.5-3.0% by mid-2022.

PDF Download Download PDF (143kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. If you consent, these tools will be used. For more details please read our Data protection policy.


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).

The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.

Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended). For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited. The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.

The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.

By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.
(iV) It is no consumer.