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2020/06/26 / Erste Group Research

Österreich: WIFO/IHS erwarten tiefe aber kurze Rezession 2020

Das Österreichische Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (WIFO) erwartet für 2020 eine stärkere Rezession in Österreich als während der Finanzkrise 2008/09. Den Prognosen zufolge soll die Wirtschaft im Jahr 2020 um 7,0% schrumpfen. Im Jahr 2021 wird sich die Wirtschaft voraussichtlich mit einem Tempo von +4,3% erholen. Dennoch wird die Wirtschaft Ende 2021 nicht zu ihrem Vorkrisenniveau zurückkehren können.

Das Wiener Institut für Höhere Studien (IHS), das gleichzeitig seine Prognosen bekannt gab, rechnet mit einem BIP-Wachstum von -7,3 % im Jahr 2020 und +5,8 % im Jahr 2021. Beide Institutionen prognostizieren einen deutlichen Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit auf bis zu 5,5 % (WIFO) bzw. 5,8 % (IHS) in diesem Jahr, der durch die Kurzarbeitsmaßnahmen weitgehend abgefedert wird.

Unsere BIP-Schätzungen entsprechen in etwa denen des WIFO und des IHS. Wir erwarten, dass die österreichische Wirtschaft im Jahr 2020 um 6,0% schrumpfen wird. Für 2021 rechnen wir mit einer Erholung von 4,2%.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameShort Notes Hauptmärkte
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusAustria
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focus-


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