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2019/07/08 / Erste Group Research

Weekly Focus Poland

Empty release calendar in Poland this week. Global markets most likely to focus on report to Congress by Jerome Powell, as Fed chairman might prepare markets for outcome of next FOMC meeting at end-July. We might see stronger movements of EURUSD and hence of zloty. Due to lack of local macro releases, bond market most likely to follow core developments.

Bond market drivers: Polish 10Y yields went below 2.3%. Over the course of the week, Polish yields decreased, following developments on core markets. The 10Y German Bund slid further to below -0.4%, while the long end of the Polish curve decreased by almost 10bp and closed the week below 2.3%. As a result, the spread vs. the 10Y German Bund narrowed to 260bp. We revised down our yield forecast and currently expect an only marginal upward move of the 10Y yield toward 2.4% at the end of 3Q19 and 2.5% at year-end.

FX market drivers: Zloty holds close to one-year high. The CEE FX market was calm last week. We did not see much movement of the zloty, as it was traded in a narrower range around 4.24 vs. the EUR. This week, the EURUSD could show some stronger movements during the testimony of Jerome Powell in Congress.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Update
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-


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