Look for:

Research Detail

2019/06/11 / Erste Group Research

Weekly Focus Poland


Macro releases this week most likely to have limited impact on bond and FX market. Trade balance expected to decline, while flash CPI to be confirmed at 2.3% y/y in May. In our view, long end of curve should stabilize. Zloty to remain under global sentiment and we see limited potential for further appreciation.

June 13: Trade balance to decline in April. The market expects the trade balance to worsen in April and decline to below EUR 500mn. Export and import volumes are expected to decline, although the drop in exports is likely to be stronger.

June 14: Flash CPI to be confirmed at 2.3% y/y. We expect that the flash reading of inflation will be confirmed at 2.3% y/y in May. We think that, after a strong pick-up in the headline figure in April (1.1% m/m), growth dynamics will stabilize in the coming months. We expect inflation to peak at the turn of the year and it could go above the upper bound of the inflation target.

Bond market drivers: Polish 10Y yields went below 2.5%. Since the end of May, the long end of the curve went down by almost 40bp. 10Y yields bottomed out at the end of last week and reached 2.45%, which is the lowest level since mid-2015. Recently, a correction has been observed, as yields went slightly above 2.5%.

FX market drivers: Zloty went visibly below 4.30 vs. EUR. Over the course of the week, the zloty followed regional developments and appreciated, supported by the weaker US dollar. The EURPLN went down to 4.26, which is the strongest level since August 2018. We expect the zloty to weaken and go above 4.30 vs. the EUR in 2H19, due to higher overall risk for the EU.

PDF Download Download PDF (326kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2019/06/11
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Update
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-
DownloadPDF (326kB) PDF Download



Accept

We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.

INFORMATION FOR CORPORATE AND INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS

Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).

The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.

Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended), citizen/resident of Australia, Canada, Great Britain and Japan. For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States, Australia, Canada, Great Britain and Japan or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited.

The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.

The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.

By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.
(iV) It is no consumer.