Look for:

Research Detail

2019/05/20 / Erste Group Research

Weekly Focus Poland


The full set of macro indicators for April will be released this week. We expect wage and employment growth to land around recently observed dynamics. Industrial production growth might surprise to the upside, as we see it at 4.0% y/y compared to the more positive market view of 9.0% y/y. Retail sales should benefit from the Easter effect and we expect growth of 6.5% y/y. We will provide our first now-cast of GDP growth in 2Q19. The zloty will most likely remain under global influence.

May 21: Wage growth and employment to remain stable. We see wage growth to increase by 6.2% y/y in April, while the market is a bit more positive and expects growth of 6.5% y/y. On the other hand, employment growth should remain stable at 3.0% y/y in April.

May 22: Industrial production to slow down. Unlike the market, which expects industrial production growth to visibly accelerate to 9.0% y/y in April, we see growth as slowing down to 4.0% y/y due to the base effect.

May 23: Easter effect to shift retail sales up in April. After sluggish performance of retail sales in March (growth of 3.1% y/y), we expect retail sales to increase by 6.5% y/y. The Easter effect and consumer confidence remaining high should be positive for the level of household spending.

Bond market: Polish 10Y yields increased to 2.9%. In the first half of the week, the long end of the curve was decreasing and 10Y yields went below 2.8%. After the GDP data and decision of the MPC to keep rates unchanged, 10Y yields started increasing. At the end of the week, the 10Y yield stood marginally below 2.9%. This week, the local macro release should be neutral for the bond market.
FX market: Zloty remains over 4.30 vs. EUR. Over the course of the week, the zloty remained above 4.30 vs. the EUR due to renewed global risk aversion. This week, the publication of Eurozone PMIs for May will be the most important macro factor for the development of the EURUSD.

PDF Download Download PDF (427kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2019/05/20
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Update
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-
DownloadPDF (427kB) PDF Download



Accept

We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.

INFORMATION FOR CORPORATE AND INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS

Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).

The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.

Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended), citizen/resident of Australia, Canada, Great Britain and Japan. For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States, Australia, Canada, Great Britain and Japan or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited.

The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.

The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.

By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.
(iV) It is no consumer.