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2019/04/15 / Erste Group Research

Weekly Focus Poland

S&P affirmed Polish rating at A-. Inflation rate confirmed at 1.7% y/y in March, suggesting uptick in core inflation. Labor market data and industrial output growth to be released this week, providing pretty complete picture of 1Q19 economic performance. After Easter, we will see retail sales growth. In Eurozone, we will see market sentiment indicators. We expect little volatility on FX and bond market.

The long end of the curve was holding steadily at around 2.9% for the whole week. At the same time, 10Y German bunds returned to positive territory, which resulted in a marginal narrowing of the Polish spread vs. Bunds. We do not expect any major changes on the bond market due to local factors, as there should be no major surprises. Inflation increased in March to 1.7%, while growth is expected to remain robust in 1Q19. The monetary outlook remains unchanged at this point.

The zloty stood out slightly among CEE currencies, mildly appreciating last week vs. the euro. The US dollar fell last week which is usually beneficial for the zloty. In the short term, especially, we do not see domestic factors as supporting the local currency. We expect the EURPLN to continue to follow global sentiment.

Next Weekly Focus Poland will be released at the beginning of May.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Update
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-


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